Sourced
Every level in the header strip and in each brief comes from the primary publisher, with the release date. If a number cannot be traced to a publisher page, it does not appear.
01
The live desk
The part of the model that moves every day. A GDP nowcast and a rupee-pressure gauge built from dated inputs, port traffic off the SLPA berthing programme, the rupee and bullion off live feeds, the week’s T-bill auction, commodity and reservoir boards, the Met Department’s rainfall map, and the dated events wire - each block carries its publisher and the moment the data was issued. A block that cannot show where its number came from does not ship.
GDP nowcast · Q3 2026[MODEL]
+5.5%
REAL GDP, Y/Y · BAND 4.5 – 6.5
Anchor: official Q1 2026 print +5.1% (DCS, 15 Jun 2026)
Next official print: Q2 2026, expected mid-Sep
Confidence: LOW · model v0.1, five dated inputs
Next official print: Q2 2026, expected mid-Sep
Confidence: LOW · model v0.1, five dated inputs
What the model is readingSIGNAL → PP
| Input | Latest reading | As of | pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private-sector credit | +27.8% y/y, Rs 11.04tn outstanding | MAY 26 | +0.5 |
| Import demand | fuel imports +40.2% y/y; trade gap widening | JUN 26 | +0.3 |
| Electricity generation | 4,578 GWh planned Q2, +1.1% vs Q2-25 | Q2 26 | +0.1 |
| Tourist arrivals | 196,845 in Jul, -1.7% y/y | JUL 26 | -0.2 |
| Policy tightening drag | +100bp May hike still feeding through | MAY 26 | -0.3 |
| Net adjustment to anchor | +0.4 | ||
Method: anchor-and-adjust, not a regression - the last official print is moved by dated leading reads, each capped at ±0.5pp. Contributions are analyst priors, not fitted coefficients. Sources: DCS Q1 2026 national accounts · CBSL on credit, 23 Jul 2026 · CBSL external sector, Jun 2026 · PUCSL tariff filing (CEB Q2 generation) · SLTDA arrivals. Nothing here is official data.
Port of Colombo · Berthing board[SNAPSHOT]
Vessels on programme
14
next 96 hours
Container moves
16,279
TEU, discharge + load
Largest caller
MSC APOLLO
300m LOA · 2,800 TEU moves
Next arrival
01 SEP 16:00
NORTHERN PRACTICE · 1,100 TEU
TEU MOVES BY DAY
MON 31 2,703 · 1 vsl
TUE 01 1,476 · 2 vsl
WED 02 8,800 · 9 vsl
THU 03 3,300 · 2 vsl
| ETA | Vessel | TEU | LOA | Service |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 12:00 | MSC LORETTA | 2,703 | 304M | ING-W |
| 01 Sep 16:00 | NORTHERN PRACTICE | 1,100 | 265M | AGI W/B |
| 01 Sep 23:00 | MSC MAKOTO II | 376 | 176M | HAL |
| 02 Sep 05:00 | MSC KETA II | 656 | 196M | KERALA SHUTTLE |
| 02 Sep 07:00 | MSC ROMANE | 1,338 | 300M | NWC TO IPAK |
| 02 Sep 08:00 | MSC EYRA 11 | 1,386 | 176M | ADHOC |
| 02 Sep 08:00 | CMA CGM NERVAL | 750 | 300M | KILIMA E/B |
| 02 Sep 12:00 | ASL PEONY | 470 | 172M | TEX |
| 02 Sep 12:00 | CELESTIA | 600 | 143M | MALE |
| 02 Sep 15:00 | MSC KANU F | 600 | 159M | TUT |
| 02 Sep 17:00 | LILA MOMBASA | 1,500 | 192M | MLEFE |
| 02 Sep 23:00 | CMA CGM CORTE REAL | 1,500 | 366M | WAX |
| 03 Sep 09:00 | MSC APOLLO | 2,800 | 300M | ADHOC |
| 03 Sep 12:00 | MSC CLEMENTINA F | 500 | 148M | ADHOC |
Source: SLPA berthing programme · published continuously · snapshot taken 01 Sep 2026 06:45 SLST. The programme is restated as agents confirm; treat as indicative.
Rupee board[LIVE]
USD / LKR327.84spot ref
EUR / LKR380.59cross
GBP / LKR444.01cross
AUD / LKR234.86cross
JPY / LKR2.052cross
INR 100 / LKR344.36cross
Live feed: ExchangeRate-API open feed, refreshed daily · last update 01 Sep 2026 00:02 UTC. Official reference: CBSL daily indicative USD/LKR, each business day.
Policy & prices[DATED]
Overnight policy rate8.75%22 JUL
SDFR / SLFR corridor8.25 / 9.2522 JUL
CCPI inflation y/y8.0%31 AUG
Petrol 92, Rs / litre39931 AUG
Auto diesel, Rs / litre38231 AUG
Tea avg, Rs / kg1,20018 AUG
Sources: CBSL policy review, 22 Jul 2026 (held; next review 30 Sep 2026) · CCPI, Aug 2026 · CPC monthly fuel revision, P92 cut Rs 15 to Rs 399 effective 31 Aug 2026, diesel unchanged · Colombo auction average, sale of 18 Aug 2026.
Data event logLAST_7
01 SEP 06:45SLPA_BERTH14 vessels awaiting berth; MSC LORETTA (2,703 TEU) overdue since Mon
01 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 327.84, daily feed close
01 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent CFD 91.00, +0.6% d/d (Trading Economics)
31 AUGDCS_CCPIAug inflation 8.0% y/y, up from 7.3% - food base effect
31 AUGCPC_FUELP92 cut Rs 15 to Rs 399; diesel unchanged at Rs 382
29 AUGIRRIG_RESIrrigation Dept: reservoirs down to 34.7%; Ampara 21.7%
26 AUGPDMO_TAPRs 12bn tap at 9.06/9.44/9.89; week total Rs 132bn
24 AUGTBILL_7WKyields down a 7th straight week; 364d 9.89%
30 SEPCBSL_NEXTnext monetary policy review
Every line is dated by its publisher. The full source register, with links, is in §08 Method.
What “realtime” means here[NOTE]
Sri Lanka publishes no streaming macro API, and the CSE exposes no public quote feed. So the desk is honest about cadence: the rupee board refreshes live in your browser, the port board is restated whenever the SLPA programme changes, and policy, prices and arrivals move on their publishers’ calendars. The freshness tag on each block tells you which is which - and the AIS map below is genuinely live. The nowcast, the rupee gauge and the desk read are models built on these dated inputs, and are labelled as such.
Commodity board[MIXED]
Brent crude, $ / bbl91.00+0.6% D/D
Gold, $ / oz4,455SPOT
Silver, $ / oz66.91SPOT
Tea auction avg, Rs / kg1,20018 AUG
BRENT, USD/BBL · 30 DAYS
27 JUL 82.1
07 AUG 84.7
17 AUG 87.8
01 SEP 91.0
Brent: Trading Economics CFD quote, snapshot 01 Sep 2026 (+8.6% m/m, +31.6% y/y) · Gold & silver: Gold-API open feed, live in browser · Tea: Forbes & Walker weekly tea report, sale of 18 Aug 2026 ($3.66/kg). Brent is the input that moves the CPC fuel line below.
Exports board · EDB monthly[DATED 31 AUG 2026]
Total exports, Jul
$1,637m
+2.6% y/y (merch + services)
Merchandise, Jul
$1,285m
-1.3% y/y; Jun was +15.1%
Services, Jul
$352m
+3.8% y/y; ICT/BPM $143m
Jan-Jul total
$10.49bn
+5.5% y/y, a 7-month record
Merchandise, Jan-Jul$8,188m+5.1% y/y
Services, Jan-Jul$2,299m+7.0% y/y
Trade deficit, 1H 2026$5.5bnvs $3.3bn 1H 2025
Fuel imports, 1H 2026$3,168m+58.8% y/y
Current account, Jun-$149m3rd straight monthly deficit
Gross official reserves$6.5bnend-Jun, CBSL
Sources: EDB provisional estimates for Jul 2026, via Newswire, 31 Aug 2026 · EDB 1H 2026 estimates, via Daily Mirror, 22 Jul 2026 · CBSL external sector review, Jun 2026 (published 31 Jul). The July merchandise dip follows June's 15.1% rise, so it reads as order timing more than trend - but apparel (-8.8% y/y) and tea (-17.2%) both fell on the Middle East demand shock that CBSL also blames for softer tourism and the wider trade gap; the rupee was down 7.8% YTD by end-Jul.
Exports by sector · who they carry[DATED JUL 2026]
| Sector | Jul 2026 earnings | y/y | Share of Jul exports | People it carries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apparel & textiles | $437.6m | -8.8% | 34.0% of merch | 350,000 direct jobs, ~1m incl. indirect; ~6% of GDP (JAAF) |
| ICT/BPM (services) | $143.2m | n/a | 40.7% of services | 115,000+ direct jobs (SLASSCOM, 2024) |
| Tea | $116.7m | -17.2% | 9.1% of merch | ~2m livelihoods, 10% of the population (Tea Board, 2024) |
| Rubber products | $87.2m | +3.2% | 6.8% of merch | 300,000+ direct & indirect jobs; 2025 exports $915m (EDB, Jan 2026) |
| Electrical & electronics | $76.3m | +99.7% | 5.9% of merch | wire & cable exports +150% y/y in Jul |
| Spices & concentrates | $72.1m | +96.0% | 5.6% of merch | cinnamon alone: ~70,000 smallholders, 30,000 peelers (STDF master plan) |
| Coconut & kernel | $24.3m¹ | +26.7% | 1.9% of merch | sector exports $855m in 2024; roadmap targets $1.5bn by 2030 (CRI, 2026) |
Sources: EDB Jul 2026 estimates via Newswire, 31 Aug 2026 · JAAF via WWD/Sourcing Journal, 2022 and the EDB apparel brief · Sri Lanka Tea Board, 2024 · EDB rubber capability report, Jan 2026 · SLASSCOM membership figures, 2024 · STDF cinnamon master plan · Coconut sector strategic plan & roadmap, CRI 2026. Shares are derived from the same EDB July release (sector earnings over the July merchandise or services total). ¹ activated carbon, the standout coconut line in the July print. ICT/BPM y/y is not broken out in the release.
T-bill auction · primary[DATED 24 AUG]
91-day9.06%▼16BP
182-day9.44%▼16BP
364-day9.89%▼2BP
Raised this week
Rs 132bn
120bn auction + 12bn tap, 26 Aug
Streak
7 wks
consecutive weekly yield declines
From early-Jul peak
-30 to -101bp
across the three tenors
Next auction
WED 02 SEP
weekly, Public Debt Mgmt Office
Source: PDMO auction of 24 Aug 2026 (full Rs 120bn sold; 91d Rs 50bn, 182d Rs 35bn, 364d Rs 35bn) and tap sale, 26 Aug 2026 · register: CBSL weekly auctions. The 364-day is back below 10% for the first time in 12 weeks.
Rupee pressure gauge[MODEL]
24
LOW_PRESSURE
USD/LKR, 30 days+2.4%STRONGER
Reserves, m/m+2.1%JUL
CBSL net FX buys$348.6mJUL
Composite of three dated inputs, equal-weighted: FX move off the live board vs end-Jul (335.9), reserve momentum (CBSL, end-Jul $6.59bn), CBSL net dollar purchases. Forward premium omitted - no dated public source. Mapping is an analyst prior; refresh dates on the inputs.
Hydro & reservoirs[DATED 29 AUG]
Major reservoirs at
34.7%
of combined gross capacity
Water in store
1.18m ac-ft
of 3.11m gross, 74 tanks
Spilling now
1
Ambewela, Badulla range
Senanayaka Samudra
18%
largest tank, 770k ac-ft gross
STORAGE BY IRRIGATION RANGE, % OF CAPACITY
KURUNEGALA 74.7
PUTTALAM 64.0
KANDY 60.9
GALLE 60.4
MONARAGALA 58.4
ANURADHAPURA 45.1
TRINCOMALEE 27.0
BATTICALOA 25.8
AMPARA 21.7
Source: Irrigation Department reservoir data - overall 34.7% and Ampara 21.7% as of 29 Aug 2026 (via Colombo Times); range detail and storage as of 26 Aug 2026 (via Daily Mirror) · register: Mahaweli Water Management Secretariat. Why the desk cares: storage sets the hydro share of generation, which sets furnace-oil burn, which lands in the CEB’s cost line and the electricity tariff review - and catchment rain feeds the plantation outlook.
Rainfall · Met Dept map[DAILY]
Map: Department of Meteorology, 24-hour accumulated rainfall, refreshed daily (latest issue 31 Aug 2026, map republished 11:17 SLST; 26 Aug print: max 43.5mm at Laxapana - a hydro catchment). The map hot-links the Department’s own image so it updates when they republish; if the hotlink is unreachable the desk falls back to the dated 26 Aug snapshot bundled with the site. Wet catchments → fuller reservoirs → more hydro, less thermal burn; sustained heavy rain cuts the other way for tea plucking and crop quality.
Population & vitals[DATED 2025]
Mid-year population
21.76m
1 Jul 2025, provisional
Census headcount
21,763,170
CPH 2024, 19 Dec 2024
Growth 2012-24
+0.5%
avg per year, intercensal
Western Province
28.1%
of population; Northern 5.3%
Birth rate, per 1,00010.12024
Death rate, per 1,0007.82024
Net migration-41,0022025 H1
Largest districtGampaha 2.43mCENSUS
Colombo density3,549/km²CENSUS
Sources: Registrar General mid-year population estimate, Oct 2025 web release (2024/25 series, anchored to the census count) · DCS Census of Population and Housing 2024, preliminary report (census moment midnight 18-19 Dec 2024) · DCS Statistical Data Sheet 2025 (vital rates, 2024). Why the desk cares: the 2024 census settled the headcount at 21.76m - below the older 22m estimates - and net migration is still negative, so every long-run demand line on this desk sits on a slowly shrinking, ageing base. Refreshed when the Registrar General or DCS republish; not a daily block.
Labour market[DATED Q1 2026]
Unemployment
3.7%
Q1 2026; 3.8% a year earlier
Participation
49.2%
Q1 2026, down from 49.7%
Labour force
8.32m
2024 annual average
Female participation
29.8%
2024; male 67.4%
Jobs in services50.4%Q1 26
Jobs in industry25.9%Q1 26
Jobs in agriculture23.7%Q1 26
Unemployment, female7.1%2024
Foreign-job registrations314,7862024
Mean household incomeRs 76,414/moHIES 19
Sources: DCS Labour Force Survey Q1 2026, via Daily Mirror, 6 Jul 2026 · DCS Statistical Data Sheet 2025 (2024 annuals, SLBFE registrations, HIES 2019 incomes). Why the desk cares: a falling jobless rate alongside falling participation reads as workers leaving the labour force, not hiring strength; 315k departures a year for foreign jobs is the remittance engine and the skills drain in one number; female participation under 30% is the economy’s largest unused input. Quarterly block - refreshes on the LFS calendar.
On the wire · dated eventsAHEAD
~30 SEPDCS_CCPISeptember inflation print (Aug: 8.0% y/y)
~30 SEPEDB_XPTAugust export earnings print (Jul: $1,637m, +2.6% y/y)
~01 OCTCPC_FUELmonthly fuel price revision (Sep: P92 Rs 399, diesel Rs 382)
02 SEPPDMO_TBILLweekly primary auction; Rs 132bn raised this week
~05 SEPSLTDA_ARRAugust arrivals (1-23 Aug: 155,331)
MID-SEPDCS_GDPQ2 2026 national accounts expected (Q1 print landed 15 Jun)
18 SEPMOF_BUDGETAppropriation Bill 2027 published in the Gazette
30 SEPCBSL_MPRmonetary policy review no. 5 of 2026 (OPR 8.75%)
07 OCTMOF_BUDGETBudget 2027 first reading in Parliament
12 NOVMOF_BUDGETBudget 2027 speech; debate to 20 Nov, committee to 14 Dec
Q4IMF_EFF7th review mission expected; 5th/6th completed May 2026, date not announced
Sources: DCS/CCPI calendar · CPC revision pattern · CBSL policy calendar · Ministry of Finance budget timetable, 12 Jul 2026 · IMF Country Report 26/111. Dates marked ~ are cadence estimates, not announced dates.
Desk read · sentiment[ANALYST READ]
RISK-ON · EXTERNALS WATCH
RATES +seven straight weekly T-bill declines; 364-day back under 10%
FX +rupee +2.4% in Aug; CBSL buying dollars, not defending
RESERVES +$6.59bn end-Jul, +2.1% m/m; $905m net bought YTD
CREDIT ++27.8% y/y - domestic demand running hot
OIL -Brent +31.6% y/y - import bill and pump-price risk
EXT ACCT -three straight monthly current-account deficits to Jun
TOURISM -Jul arrivals -1.7% y/y; Aug tracking soft
A read on the dated items on this desk, not investment advice. The balance: local rates and FX are risk-on; the caveats sit on the external side - oil, the current account, and soft arrivals. Recounts as the dated blocks refresh.
Port of Colombo · live vessel traffic (AIS)[LIVE]
Port of Hambantota · throughput board[DATED JUN 26]
Containers, Jun 2026
80,325
TEU · record month
RoRo vehicles, Jun 2026
90,219
record month
Total cargo, 2025
8.24m MT
+175% y/y
Containers, 2025
428,036
TEU · 8x the 53,169 of 2024
CONTAINER TEU, HAMBANTOTA
2024 53,169
2025 428,036
JUN 2026 80,325 · record month
Sources: HIPG via Port Technology International, 9 Jul 2026 (record June; 2025 cargo 8.24m MT, +175%) · single-vessel record 13,260 TEU, MSC Marie Leslie, Apr 2026 · HIPG $108m crane order, 2026. Volumes lifted by Gulf-route diversions and Colombo congestion.
BIA · air gateway board[DATED JUN 26]
Passengers, H1 2026
4.75m
Jan-Jun · BIA only
Aircraft movements
30,659
H1 2026
Transit passengers
424,856
H1 2026
Record month
1,045,097
Jan 2026 · all-island pax
BIA PASSENGERS, JAN-JUN 2026
H1 2026 4,748,481
of which transit 424,856
TOURISTS IN, H1 2026 ~1.146m
AASL operating data for Jan-Jun 2026, reported 17 Jul 2026 · January all-airports record (previous 1,034,687 in Jan 2018): Aviation Voice, 17 Feb 2026 · 2025 full year: 10.2m passengers, 95,629 movements across Sri Lanka's airports (AASL key figures).
Regional ports[DATED AUG 26]
19 AUGTRINCOMALEEAAL maiden call - 64,000 FRT of turbine components for the 50MW HayWind Mannar wind farm
29 MAYTRINCOMALEEfirst three-vessel day - turbines, 17,000t steel rods, 55,000t coal for INSEE
SEPKKSKaraikal-KKS-Trincomalee container ferry starts; KKS rebuild on an India grant in final stage
NOV 25GALLEminister: formal investor call to rebuild Galle as a tourism port (cruise berth, ~$175m)
Sources: Newswire, 1 Jun 2026 · Move It Magazine, 19 Aug 2026 · Daily Mirror, 13 Jul 2026 · Daily Express, 27 Nov 2025. Regional ports carry bulk, project cargo and island services - no container mainline yet.